So we?re just two weeks into the new year and we?re seeing some trending happening with the daily tracking of RMLS data that I do and it?s a bit mixed.
First off, inventory is still declining for the most part, down to 4,478 homes currently listed as of today which is well off of the 6,174 homes listed back when I started tracking this information in October?which was?right around?when the decline really started to kick into gear. That?s about a 28% decline in available inventory in just three months time.
This trend however appears to be shifting as new listings after the first of the year have begun to increase from an average of 40 new listings per day through most of December to now peaking just over 60 homes per day listed on average:
Pending sales through the?end of?last year were declining sharply with an average of 80?homes going pending per?day in?early October slipping to just over 40 per day by the end of the year and so far that?s pretty much flat lined though?there is a tiny uptick at the end of the trend line in the?graph:
Now onto closings, WOW, not a good trend here. We were seeing around 60 closings per day on average just before the end of the year and that has slumped off significantly heading closer to 20 closings per day after the new year. This of course is also effected by the holiday spending hangover often seen this time of year, so it?s too early to tell if this will continue:
What all of this tells me is the market, though certainly seeing a recovery, is still doing a balancing act of sorts. If new listings continue to increase, which historically they will in the spring/summer,?pending?s remain flat and?sold home closings continue to decline we could see a bit of a shift back to a more balanced market, potentially even dipping into a buyers market again through the summer.
With regards to short sales, foreclosures and new construction we?re seeing new bank owned listings just about flat lined with a very slight uptick in recent weeks, sold bank owned homes are declining slightly in the new year and the percent of new listings (8% of all new listings) and new closed sales (12% of all new closed sales) that are bank owned is pretty much flat at the moment. For short sales, there has been an uptick in new short sale listings, a decline in short sale closings and the percent of new listings (10% of all new listings) and new closed sales (6% of all new closed sales) that are short sales are also pretty much flat lined. For new construction, new listings are picking up, sales are declining and the percent of new listings that are new construction is declining (around 12% of all new listings) but the percent of new sales that are new construction is flat (roughly 13% of all sales on average).
I track these numbers daily so stay tuned for more of what?s going on in the local Portland real estate market.
Scott McDonald
Tags: daily portland real estate market tracking
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